08:00CDT - 30 Apr 2001

Chicago Institute Issues "Civil Unrest" Advisory

By C. L. Staten, ERRI Sr. National Security Analyst

Chicago, IL (EmergencyNet News) -- Developing events in two Asian capitals and one major European commerce enter have prompted Emergency Response & Research Institute (ERRI) conflict analysts to issue an unusual "civil unrest advisory" for Manila, the Philippine Islands, Jakarata, Indonesia and London, England.

Some Anticipated Events Within the Next 24-48 hours:

Indonesia:

On Monday, the Indonesian parliament is expected to censure President Abdurrahman Wahid. Wahid was first censured by parliament in February for his role in two financial scandals, but has denied any wrongdoing. This second censure will bring him closer to the prospect of impeachment, which many fear could trigger violence and unrest. Significant protests and political violence could begin within the next 24-48 hours.

Reference: http://www.emergency.com/indowarn.htm

The Philippines:

It is believed that, for at least the time being, that a crowd of 100-300,000 supporters of Joseph Estrada have been diverted from storming the Malacanang Presidential palace. It is thought in Philippine intelligence circles that a coup attempt has been thwarted within the past 24 hours, as the AFP (Armed Forces of the Philippines) went on maximum alert. Estrada, on Sunday, vowed he would not give up his fight and urged his followers to hold nationwide protests. Significant protests and political violence could begin within the next 24-48 hours.

Reference: http://www.emergency.com/philwarn.htm

London, England

On May 1st, 2001 (May Day), starting at about 07:30 London time, 10,000 anti-globalization/Anti-capitalist protestors are scheduled to descend on London, England. Police intelligence reports suggest that attacks on the London Underground, banks, political buildings, monuments and stores could take place. 5,000 members of the Metropolitan police, City of London police and the British Transport police (BTP), will attempt to prevent a reoccurrence of the violence and property damage that marked "May Day 2K protests," and before that the "J18: Global Carnival Against Corporate Tyranny." Both of those demonstrations caused both injuries and damage to London's financial district. Significant protest and political violence could begin in London within the next 24-48 hours.

References:
http://www.emergency.com/1999/j18-0699.htm
http://www.emergency.com/2000/mayday2k.htm
http://www.emergency.com/2001/anticapitalist-chrono.htm

On-Line Protests/Pro-Chinese "Hactivist" Campaign

In addition to the protest activity listed above, warnings have also been issued by the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI -- see below in Cyber-Crime/Viruses/Cyber-Terrorism section)  in regard to the possibility of a "hacktivist" internet campaign involving "denial of service attacks," webpage defacements, e-mail bombardment, and distribution of computer viruses. This illicit computer activity may be the result of a threatened "May Day Campaign" on the part of Chinese "crackers" and "script kiddies." Unconfirmed reports coming from Chinese discussion groups and webpages are reportedly calling the anti-U.S. campaign, "Network War of National defense" or (Wu Yi Wei Guo Wang Zhan).

Preliminary reports have already been received on webpage defacements of at least two U.S. government agencies -- The Dept. of Labor and the Dept. of Health and Human Services. Both were adorned on Saturday with pictures of a Chinese pilot who was believed lost in an accident involving a U.S. EP3-E surveillance plane a couple of weeks ago. The United Press International (UPI) website reportedly suffered a similar fate this morning (Monday). Significant on-line protests, hacktivist activity, and various forms of computer attack could take place in the next 24-48 hours.

References:
http://www.emergency.com/2000/dos2000.htm
http://www.emergency.com/2000/compdefnse-implc.htm
http://www.emergency.com/techpage.htm

AUSTRALIA:

Police Warn Against May Day Violence

Police warned on Monday that they will not tolerate any violence at anti-globalization protests which will target the country's stock exchange offices and other key corporate centers on Tuesday. A coalition of left-wing protest groups known as the M1 alliance has threatened to blockade the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) buildings in Sydney and Melbourne and to protest outside other corporate offices, including the World Bank office. Organizers expect between 2,000 to 10,000 people to march through Sydney and up to 10,000 people to march through Melbourne, with unionists joining M1 protesters in the city.

© EmergencyNet News Service, 2001. All rights reserved. May not be redistributed or otherwise published without the expressed permission of ERRI/EmergencyNet News.

Emergency Response & Research Institute
6348 N. Milwaukee Ave., #312
Chicago, IL. 60646
(773) 631-3774 - Voice
(773) 631-4703 - Fax
(773) 631-3467 - Modem/Emergency BBS On-Line
http://www.emergency.com - Main Webpage
webmaster@emergency.com - E-mail

Return to the EmergencyNet News page