Series of ERRI/EmergencyNet News Reports Concerning an Emerging Insurgency In Central/South Asia - 01 Aug to 01 Sep, 2000
From: ERRI DAILY INTELLIGENCE REPORT-ERRI Risk Assessment Services-Friday, September 1, 2000-Vol. 6, No. 245
CENTRAL ASIA:
Lead Focus
Armed Islamists Seen As Long-Term Threat For Central Asia
For the second time in the course of a year, heavily
armed and well-trained Islamic rebels have attacked the small nations in
Central Asia in what looks to become a recurring threat to the volatile
region. Why the rebels are attacking remains open to debate. Some analysts
says the rebels want to open new drug and weapons trafficking routes,
others suggest their aims are more political.
In either case, fighting is once again unsettling the remote corner of the world that few people even know exists. The attacks and fighting is drawing ever more concern from neighboring Russia, which is already grappling with rebels of its own in Chechnya.
Moscow has offered to provide new military supplies to Central Asia, a region it desperately wants to place under its control as it competes with Western powers who are seeking to tap into vast natural gas and oil reserves. Sparking the latest violence, some 200 Islamic rebels in early August attacked the southern border regions of Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan.
Military sources say the rebels crossed from neighboring Tajikistan, where another 800 rebels are preparing further strikes, a charge denied by the Tajik authorities. Observers say that the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) led by Uzbek warlord Djuma Namangani is behind the offensive, which has already left dozens of government troops and rebels dead.
The warlord shot to prominence in 1999 when he launched an incursion into southern Kyrgyzstan, taking hostage four Japanese geologists who were later released unharmed. Namangani, who fought alongside opposition forces during the Tajik civil war, then retreated with his 1,000-strong force to Tajikistan and the Taliban-controlled regions of Afghanistan.
Muslim fundamentalists from Namangani's ranks were also blamed for a series of bomb blasts in Tashkent in February 1999, one of which narrowly missed Uzbek President Islam Karimov.
The rebels also wish to set up an Islamic state in the Ferghana Valley, which straddles Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Kyrgyz officials say Namangani has been paid by master terrorist Usama bin Laden to destabilize the situation in Central Asia, and he is now trying to justify that cash. To a certain degree, this hypothesis makes sense. Recent reports say that bin Laden may be outliving his welcome in Afghanistan. The Taliban who like to get rid of the bin Laden "hot potato." But what country in its right mind would accept harboring the world's most wanted man? To bin Laden's thinking, maybe he'll carve out his own little country in the Ferghana Valley to hide out in.
The real root of the instability is seen as Afghanistan, which shares a border with two of the rebel-hit countries and is accused of exporting terrorism and providing training and support for up to 2,000 Uzbek Islamists on its soil. Uzbek security forces say the militants are seeking to set up routes to traffic narcotics from Afghanistan, which already transports some 70 percent of the drugs it produces across Central Asian territory.
Although Namangani's men are unlikely to pose a serious military threat to the 50,000-strong Uzbek army and the joint military forces of Central Asia, the region has been seriously shaken by the attacks. The incursions have revealed the difficulty of policing Central Asia's remote and winding mountainous frontiers...
TAJIKISTAN:
U.S. State Department Updates Travel Warning
On 30 August, the U.S. Department of State issued the following updated Travel Warning for the Central Asian state of Tajikistan:
"The Department of State warns U.S. citizens to defer all travel to Tajikistan. Due to threats to Americans and American interests worldwide, instability in Tajikistan, and the limited ability to secure the safety of embassy personnel at the U.S. Embassy in Dushanbe in their current facility, the Department of State suspended Embassy operations there and temporarily relocated all American diplomatic personnel to Almaty, Kazakhstan, in September 1998. Although the political climate has improved with the United Nations-brokered peace process between the Government and opposition and with peaceful elections in 1999 and 2000, the situation remains unpredictable. Recent fighting on the Tajikistan-Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan-Uzbekistan borders has included hostage taking incidents in neighboring Kyrgyzstan directly targeted against foreign citizens, including one incident involving American citizens."
Tajikistan is considered to be a dangerous country to visit. ERRI analysts strongly advise against all travel to Tajikistan until further notice.
KRYGYZSTAN: The president of Kyrgyzstan warned on Thursday that Islamic rebels are trying to destabilize his country and central Asia in general. In a speech to mark Kyrgyz independence day, President Askar Akayev said insurgents in the south would not be allowed to disturb the country's peace. There has been fighting with Islamic rebels in southern Kyrgyzstan and in neighboring Uzbekistan since the beginning of the month. Kyrgyz defense officials have reported further clashes involving around 50 rebels. On Friday Uzbekistan celebrates its independence day. Security has been stepped up in the capital, Tashkent, in fear of attacks by Islamic extremists.
31 Aug 2000
UZBEKISTAN:
Successes Claimed Against Rebels
The Uzbek government said on Wednesday that its troops killed eight Islamist rebel gunmen hiding in the hills near the capital, Tashkent. President Islam Karimov told reporters that the army also freed two of the three border guards captured by the gunmen when they entered Uzbekistan a week ago. The fate of the third hostage remains unknown.
Karimov denied media reports that his government needed Russian help to fight the rebels, saying it had requested technical military aid only. Speaking at the opening session of Uzbek parliament, Karimov said: "The operation will be continued. I can say with confidence that within two or three days the entire group of bandits will be wiped out..."
30 Aug 2000
CENTRAL ASIA: Reports from Uzbekistan say three government soldiers and eight rebels were killed in an operation to wipe out Islamic militants in an area near the capital, Tashkent. Police and border guards in Bostanlyk , in the Tashkent region, said the latest casualties occurred during fighting on Monday. A Kyrgyz senior official says a group of rebels tried to cross into southern Kyrgyzstan from Tajikistan early on Tuesday, but was forced to retreat after fierce fighting. The Russian foreign ministry meanwhile has issued a statement, saying that Russia is prepared to help Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan in their fight against Islamic extremists.
29 Aug 2000
KYRGYZSTAN:
Government Forces Repel Rebel Attack
The Kyrgyz Defense Ministry said on Monday its troops repelled an attack by about 60 Islamic rebels who tried to cross from neighboring Tajikistan. Officials said Kyrgyz border guards fought the insurgents throughout the night before the gunmen retreated towards the southern border. The clash is said to have taken place at Dzheluu-Suu in Kyrgyzstan's Batken region, a few miles from Tajikistan.
There has been a series of attacks this month on both Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan blamed by them on Islamic militants opposed to secular government. The fighters are thought to be from the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, who aim to establish an Islamic state in the Fergana Valley which straddles the borders of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. The rebels are alleged to have been trained in Afghanistan.
Both Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan say the rebels' bases are in Tajikistan, but the authorities there deny it. Tajikistan emergencies minister Mirzo Ziyoyev said every gorge in the mountainous border district had been inspected over the past two months for signs of the rebels. He also denied media reports that the rebels included members of the former Tajikistan opposition group, the United Tajik Opposition (UTO).
Eurasian analysts say the rebels do not appear to be anywhere near launching the sort of concerted military campaign that the Taleban have mounted in Afghanistan. Most of the groups which have penetrated Uzbekistan and its neighbors seem to be relatively small, intent on starting a destabilization process...
26 Aug 2000
UZBEKISTAN:
Authorities Renew Calls For Vigilance
The government of Uzbekistan has renewed calls for increased vigilance by the population, following weeks of cross-border incursions by Islamic militants. The latest warning, broadcast by state television, was issued by the first deputy interior minister, Bahodir Matlubov, who urged people to report anything they considered suspicious.
Extra defense measures have also been announced in Kazakhstan which has so far escaped the worst of the trouble. Security on the border with Uzbekistan is being tightened and sniper and hill units given intensive training to prepare them for surprise assaults.
U.S. State Department Issues Revised Public Announcement
-- UzbekistanOn 24 August, the U.S. Department of State issued the following revised Public Announcement for Uzbekistan:
"American citizens are urged to be aware of an increased threat of terrorist violence in Uzbekistan and the heightened activity and vigilance by the security forces responding to that threat, especially in the period leading up to and during the September 1, 2000 celebration of Uzbekistan's Independence Day holiday. This heightened security stance is in response to fighting on the Tajikistan-Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan-Uzbekistan borders, which has included recent hostage-taking incidents in Kyrgyzstan directly targeted against foreign citizens, one of which involved American citizens.
Outbreaks of violence continue along the Uzbek-Tajik border in the Surkhandarya region, and Uzbekistani authorities are evacuating people in the region northeast of Tashkent. American citizens are urged to avoid all travel in these regions. Some areas of Uzbekistan, generally on the borders with Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan, have been closed to civilians and tourists due to operations by government security forces. Restricted personal movement, including the closing of roads to traffic and frequent document, vehicle and personal identification checks should be anticipated. U.S. citizen residents and visitors should remain vigilant with regard to their personal safety, especially if they choose to attend Independence Day events."
KYRGYZSTAN:
Fierce Clashes Erupt As Islamists Attack Border Post
The Defense Ministry said on Friday that fierce clashes erupted overnight Friday between Islamic rebels and Kyrgyz troops when insurgents attacked a Kyrgyz border post. The rebels launched an assault on a border post near the Kum-Bel mountain pass in southern Kyrgyzstan late Thursday but were beaten back towards the Uzbek enclave Sokh. No Kyrgyz troops were killed in the fighting.
Small groups of Muslim fighters continue to launch assaults nightly on Kyrgyz frontier posts in isolated mountainous regions in an attempt to penetrate into the country.
In Kazakhstan, security on the country's southern border with Uzbekistan has been stepped up following the rebel incursion into the neighboring Tashkent region. Kazakh state news reported Friday that additional border posts have been installed and equipped along the Kazakh border with Uzbekistan, although as yet there has been no sign of any security threat in the remote mountainous region.
24 Aug 2000
KYRGYZSTAN:
Troops Wounded In Clashes With Islamic Rebels
Islamic rebels reportedly carried out another attack in Kyrgyzstan on Thursday as fighting in the remote mountains of the ex-Soviet republic entered its second week. The Defense Ministry said that nine Muslim rebels attacked a border post in the Lyalyak region of Kyrgyzstan near the Bel-Kuguk mountain pass early Thursday. Several soldiers may have been wounded in the attack.
Kyrgyz border guards also battled with a group of eight rebels on Wednesday evening who launched an assault on a frontier post from the Tajik Voruk enclave. Armed Islamic insurgents, allegedly trained in Afghan camps, have made a series of incursions from Tajikistan into the former Soviet states of Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan this month. The rebels are said to be from the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), which last year invaded the southern Batken region of Kyrgzystan, taking hostage four Japanese geologists.
IMU representatives say they want to set up an Islamic state in the Ferghana Valley, which straddles Kyrgyztan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.
Kyrgyz officials have warned that some 800 rebels are massed at different points in Tajikistan preparing to cross over into the Central Asian states. Valery Verchagin, Kyrgyz deputy security minister, said the rebels seemed to be awaiting reinforcements from Afghanistan to launch a much larger attack in the region. (See today's report from Uzbekistan -- below.)
UZBEKISTAN:
Rebels Kill Two Soldiers; Fears of Larger Terrorist Offensive
A spokesman for the presidential press service said on Wednesday that two Uzbek border guards were killed and three are missing following an attack by a group of Islamic rebel insurgents in the Bostanlyk district northeast of the capital Tashkent. A 15-man group of Wahhabist fundamentalist rebels, who are believed to be part of a larger force numbering several hundred men and belonging to the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, a group that is opposed to Uzbek Pr
esident Islam Karimov, attacked the border guards near the border between Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan after infiltrating the area from the neighboring Central Asian republic of Tajikistan. Uzbek military sources believe the missing men have been kidnapped by the rebels.22 Aug 2000
UZBEKISTAN: The Interfax news agency said two Kazakh nationals were detained in Uzbekistan after customs officials found nearly half a ton of heroin and opium in their truck. The officials stopped the truck at a border post with Tajikistan. The drugs were said to be worth about US$4 million. International observers say drug seizures in Uzbekistan doubled last year. ERRI counter-terrorism analysts said that they believe that funding received from the sale of drugs is being used by guerillas to finance the purchase of weapons and fuel other separatist activities.
16 Aug 2000
KYRGYZSTAN:
Government Claims Bin Laden Backing Rebels
The Kyrgyzstan government says Islamic gunmen who are fighting the Kyrgyz armed forces are being financed by master terrorist Usama bin Laden and the Taleban in Afghanistan. Security officials said the aim of the militants was to destabilize Central Asia, and that the Kyrgyz government would never negotiate with what it called international terrorists.
International observers say that countries in the region regard Afghanistan as the source of terrorism, religious extremism and organized crime. As the most recent fighting continued, the Secretary of the National Security Council Bolot Januzakov said seventeen Kyrgyz soldiers had been killed since the clashes began in southern Kyrgyzstan on Friday. He said more than forty rebels had been killed, but there's no independent confirmation of that claim.
13 Aug 2000
KRYGYZSTAN:
Fierce Clashes With Islamic Rebels Reported
Kyrgyz troops on Sunday battled for the third day running with Islamic rebels who crossed over from neighboring Tajikistan, as the military warned that a much larger contingent was poised to come over the border. Government forces have reportedly surrounded a group of some 100 Islamists, massed near the border with Tajikistan in southern Kyrgyzstan.
Kyrgyz National Security Secretary, Bolot Dzhanuzakov, said the fighting has left 20 government soldiers dead and wounded 18 others. He added that the rebels -- entrenched in the high mountains -- had only suffered "minor" losses. Kyrgyz defense officials said that some 500 Islamic rebels have gathered in the east of Tajikistan with the aim of crossing into Kyrgyzstan. But the Tajik Defense Ministry in Dushanbe denied the report.
Fierce fighting broke out between the army and guerrilla groups on Friday after a 30-40 strong group of Islamists from Tajikistan, attempting to join rebels in Uzbekistan via the mountainous Kyrgyzstan, were intercepted by Kyrgyz forces...
12 Aug 2000
KYRGYZSTAN:
Security Forces Clash With Gunmen From Tajikistan
Officials said that gunmen crossed from Tajikistan into two of its Central Asian neighbors on Friday and clashed with troops in one of them, Kyrgyzstan. A Kyrgyz government spokesman said troops fought with a group of up to 40 rebels who crossed from Tajikistan on Friday. The gunmen were believed to belong to the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan. The fighters crossed into Kyrgyzstan's mountainous Batken region from Tajik territory.
The fighters were said to be on their way to Uzbekistan, further to the north. The spokesman said a regiment commander and a regular soldier had been wounded in the ensuing battle to wipe out the group.
Officials in Uzbekistan said a group of gunmen had also been spotted in its eastern region after crossing from Tajikistan. It was not clear whether the two groups were connected but Uzbek Interior Minister Zakirdzhon Almatov told a meeting of the country's Security Council in the capital Tashkent that reinforcements had been sent to the region.
Also on Friday, Russian forces guarding Tajikistan's border with Afghanistan said they repelled a group of 40 fighters trying to cross the frontier...
10 Aug 2000
UZBEKISTAN:
Security Forces Launch Operation To Crush Islamic Rebels
Uzbek security forces said on Tuesday they have launched an assault to crush a group of armed Islamic rebels who streamed across the border, killing several Uzbek troops.Uzbek troops have been fighting some 70 to 100 Islamic rebels who have crossed from Tajikistan to the Sariasiysky district of the Surkhandarinsk region, southern Uzbekistan. Foreign Minister Abdulaziz Komulov said three Uzbek troops had died in the fighting so far.
Meanwhile, security forces in the neighboring republic of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have both been put on heightened alert. The flare-up marks the second security crisis in the Central Asian region in less than a year. Officials in Tashkent said that the well-armed rebels were trained in camps in Afghanistan and crossed into Uzbekistan from Tajikistan via an isolated 13,000-foot high mountain pass.
05 Aug 2000
KYRGYZ REPUBLIC: According to police, the body of an Israeli diplomat was found Friday morning in his Bishkek apartment. He was apparently stabbed to death on Thursday night during a robbery of his home. Investigators said that they arrested two suspects and are looking for a third. The diplomat was attached to the Israeli Embassy in Kazakhstan, but worked and lived in Bishkek.
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