EmergencyNet News - 16 Oct 2000
OPINION/EDITORIAL
The Mid-East Crisis; A Transition in Tactics??
By C. L. Staten, Sr. National Security Analyst
A
Mid-East peace summit is about to get underway in Egypt. Palestinian
Chairman Arafat, Israeli Prime Minister Barak, and U.S. President Clinton
are all coming together in an attempt to find a way to end the escalating
violence that has engulfed the Mid-East in recent days. And, the good news
is that there is some evidence that rioting and arson attacks in Israel
and on the West Bank may have subsided, at least to some extent.
But, there is also bad news. As the "intifada" by zealous Muslim youths throwing rocks and Molotov cocktails starts to wind down, it would appear that professional saboteurs, suicide bombers, and military-trained terrorists may just be getting started.
If one needs evidence of this evolving shift in tactics, one only needs to look to Yemen, where 17 U.S. Navy sailors paid with their lives as a small boat pulled up along side the U.S.S. Cole and detonated a fearsome explosion that opened a 40 foot hole in her side. A preliminary examination of the blast scene would seem to suggest that the blast was caused by a "sophisticated external device," designed to do the job that it did.
At almost the same time, someone threw another explosive device over a wall at the British Embassy compound, which thankfully caused a good deal of damage, but no injuries. An examination of that bombing scene might also suggest that it wasn't for a lack of trying that the bombers didn't cause a large death toll there.
The next day, another high visibility "terrorist event" took place as two Saudi nationals apparently hijacked Saudi Arabian Airlines Flt. 115 and took it to Iraq. While it is starting to appear that the skyjacking may have been more "guerilla theatre" -- designed to improve Saddam Hussein's public relations image -- than an actual terrorist attack, the incident points out the vulnerability of the international air travel system and how it can be manipulated to the advantage of political terrorists.
In other words, our most current analysis would suggest that we will now see a reduction in the deaths and injuries to common Palestinians, and an increase of deaths and/or injuries to common Israelis. The primary difference will be the fact that the Israelis will be innocents, killed by bombs exploding on transportation systems and in public squares. The bombs will undoubtedly be set by professionally trained Islamic Jihad and Hamas bombers who were recently released from Palestinian jails.
And, as the incidents in Yemen adequately demonstrate, countries that call themselves allies of Israel will also suffer the wrath of radical Muslim bombers in other locations throughout the world. Thus, we see a transition in tactics -- from an allegedly popular uprising on the streets of Ramallah -- to a world-wide covert war being fought by militants trained in the camps of the Beka' Valley, Yemen, Afghanistan and Iran.
Although we are not optimistic about the outcome of the summit in Egypt, it would be our greatest wish that some sort of reasonable diplomatic solution could be achieved that would end the violence. Unfortunately, given the positions and rhetoric of the conflicting parties, that does not appear possible at this time.
Instead, we're afraid that our present prognosis would indicate that we will probably see several more high-profile terrorist events aimed at intimidating Israel and/or her allies into capitulation in negotiations. Or, it is even possible that both terrorism and rioting tactics may be used simultaneously in an effort to exert maximum pressure...with all of this leading up to a unilateral declaration of a independent Palestinian state in November.
Click here for a Series of "Real-Time" EmergencyNet News Reports Concerning Major Civil Unrest in the West Bank/Gaza Strip/Jerusalem -- 28 Sep 2000 to 13 Oct 2000
Click here for a continuing series of EmergencyNet News reports concerning an apparent terrorist attack on the U.S.S. Cole in Aden, Yemen harbor...12 Oct to 16 Oct 2000
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