Excerpted from: ERRI INTELLIGENCE REPORT-ERRI Risk Assessment
Services-Saturday, May 8, 1999-Vol. 5, No. 128-09:35CDT
LEAD FOCUS
UK THINK-TANK RELEASES SURVEY ON "WMD" TERRORISM
By Steve Macko, ERRI Risk Analyst
UNITED KINGDOM (EmergencyNet News) - A leading London think-tank said on Tuesday that
Western governments could inadvertently invite increased terrorist attacks by focusing too
much on stopping extremists from obtaining nuclear weapons. The International Institute
for Strategic Studies (IISS) said the West should not exaggerate the chances of terrorists
using nuclear, biological or chemical weapons (NBC), especially at a time when
conventional terrorism was becoming more deadly.
The think-tank said in its strategic survey for 1998-99 that terrorists using bombs and
bullets would pose the greater risk for many years to come.
IISS Deputy Director Colonel Terry Taylor said: "We warn against overstating the
threat of extremist groups using nuclear, biological or chemical weapons. If governments
put too much effort into fighting this threat, they could take their eyes off the ball as
far as conventional terrorism was concerned."
The survey said that despite widespread concern about the damage which terrorists could
wreak with a single weapon of mass destruction, this was still a remote possibility.
The survey said: "Although reports of terrorist interest in NBC... are increasing,
they largely involve hoaxes, simple expressions of interest and often amateurish attempts
to obtain agents or materials ... future incidents are likely to be similarly low-impact.
Nuclear capabilities are difficult to acquire, and chemical and biological weapons are
difficult to handle. Terrorists are apt to rely on tried and true conventional bombs which
have, over the years, become ever more damaging."
C. L. Staten, Senior Analyst and Executive Director of the Emergency Response &
Research Institute, said, "We would agree with our British colleagues that the
likelihood of terrorist attacks utilizing conventional explosives is probably the greatest
threat at this time. But we also feel that the time has also come for the training and
equipping of national security and emergency service agencies to deal with an emerging
threat of chemical, biological, or nuclear terrorism (Weapons of Mass Destruction or
WMD's)."
"We see it as a natural progression of increasingly dangerous terrorist actions,
which are designed to take the maximum number of lives," Staten continued. "The
trend, as stated in recent U.S. Department of State and FBI studies, is that there are a
fewer number of incidents and a greater number of casualties in recent years," the
veteran counterterrorist author and analyst continued. "The usage of non-conventional
(WMD) weapons is only a natural extension of an evolving theory of 'post-modern'
terrorism," Staten said.
Staten added: "While we should certainly maintain our training and preparations to
defend against attacks using conventional explosives and automatic weapons ... ERRI
analysts believe that national security and emergency forces should also make good use of
this precious time during a transition in evolving
and devolving terrorist tactics to effectively equip and prepare for the possibility
of future WMD attacks ... I'm afraid that we must respectfully suggest that to do less
could ultimately prove foolhardy," Staten concluded.
The IISS survey, reflecting recent comments by top security experts, said terrorism was
increasingly the preserve of individuals quite willing to cause huge damage. It said:
"The patterns of terrorism familiar in previous decades are breaking down and a
complex and murky new reality is emerging."
The survey noted the rise of single-issue terrorism, inspired by such issues as abortion,
hunting, racism and protecting the environment. The survey said: "The rise of
'loners' and small, loose-knit groups is critical in shaping perceptions of the new
terrorism ... The new terrorists are likely to be more indiscriminate and more lethal than
the old."
The IISS also said in its survey: "What is most serious is that terrorists are using
more efficient weapons than in the past."
"I think that the actions of the Aum Shinrikyo Cult in Japan should point out the
possibilities of what a small, but ideologically or religiously fanatic group, can do with
WMD's," ERRI's Staten added. "Although technically more difficult to deploy,
WMD's could have a vastly lethal and disproportionate effect when used by terrorist
operatives...they could be used most effectively in maximizing and amplifying the
prime terrorist objective of causing fear in a civilian population," Staten said.
"Further, the use of WMD's by a terrorist force could have a seriously detrimental
effect on civilian morale and strongly undermine a citizen's confidence in their
government," he continued.
The IISS concluded that few extremists were likely to achieve their goals. It said:
"Terrorism is unlikely to weaken the strong democracies in the West fundamentally. It
could, however, help undermine some of the fragile ones emerging from
authoritarianism."
© Copyright, EmergencyNet News Service, 1999. All rights reserved.
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