EmergencyNet NEWS Service-Tuesday, March 30, 1999-16:41CST

CRISIS NEWS BRIEFS

MACEDONIA (EmergencyNet News) - Desperate Kosovo refugees faced delays at border crossings on Tuesday as they fled Yugoslav forces. As international alarm mounted and governments scrambled to mobilize aid, France called for an emergency European conference to tackle the humanitarian crisis.

SERBIA (EmergencyNet News) - Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic held out the prospect of a settlement to the Kosovo crisis on Tuesday, but only if NATO ended its punishing bomb and missile attacks. Speaking on Yugoslav state television after emergency talks with Russian Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov, Milosevic said the allied air offensive risked a new explosion in the Balkans.

WASHINGTON (EmergencyNet News) - The United States said on Tuesday that the Yugoslav proposals obtained by Russian Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov fall "far short" of what must be done before NATO will halt its air campaign against Serbia.

WASHINGTON (EmergencyNet News) - According to defense analysts, a drawn-out U.S. military campaign against Yugoslavia could cost several billion dollars, setting the stage for a congressional battle over how to pay the bill. Cruise missiles and laser-guided bombs are not cheap. Start dropping hundreds of tank-busting munitions at up to $300,000 a pop, lose a second $45 million stealth bomber or other sophisticated fighting machines, and the pricetag for the American military operation over Kosovo could explode.

From the ERRI Watch Center

LONDON (EmergencyNet News) - Defense analysts said on Tuesday that the Kosovo crisis has harshly taught NATO that now the Cold War is over, political will can only work if it is backed up by the right military clout.

After a week of military operations, NATO's 19 members win praise for sticking to their political targets -- but only passing grades for the first time fighting together in their own backyard. The analysts question whether without United States involvement, Europe would be as effective as it has been.

Defense analyst Paul Beaver of Jane's Defense Information Group said: "The war has taught us some harsh lessons. The Americans have been much better than the Europeans in adapting their technology after the end of the Cold War."

In the Cold War, the target was the Soviet bloc. Today, conflicts are more diffuse flare-ups, with rapid deployment of forces vital, always a problem for a group that has 19 members. The analysts warn the biggest tests may still be ahead if the refugee crisis escalates and the present bombing campaign alone does not work, necessitating the use of ground forces.

NATO leaders agree that at least 100,000 troops would be needed for NATO to fight its way into Kosovo. But some analysts say at least 200,000 to 300,000 would be needed and even others say at least 400,000 may be needed to invade Kosovo.

Military chiefs say they would take months to assemble and there are serious doubts if political leaders would have the appetite for such a commitment in manpower.

Nigel Vinson, research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute for Defense Studies, fears an open-ended conflict. He said: "The biggest weakness is the commitment to using ground forces and an unwillingness to deploy them."

According to Dominique Moisi, deputy director of the French Institute of International Relations in Paris, the Kosovo crisis has showed Europe that it could not go it alone without the United States.

Terry Taylor of the International Institute of Strategic Studies said Europe's military shortcomings have become glaringly obvious over Kosovo. He said, "If they are serious about having a European defense identity, they have to pay for it and have the political will to match the military capability. There is still a decline in defense budgets ... There are still less European forces available than last year. European countries are so keen to support their own industries, they don't buy the equipment they need."

Taylor added that only Britain had the expeditionary capability that other conscript-dominated European armies lacked. Beaver said Germany's armed forces was one of the question marks over an expanded NATO role in the Kosovo crisis. Beaver said: "The Germans have to keep a large conscript army to keep unemployment down...But you need to have professional standards."

Beaver also forecast growing logistics problems. He said, "There just aren't enough air bases in Italy. We are starting to run out of space in the parking lot. With Austria and Switzerland closing their air space, it is very difficult to operate out of Germany."

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