EmergencyNet NEWS Service-Wednesday, March 24, 1999-09:35CST

*** CRISIS NEWS BRIEFS ***

SERBIA (EmergencyNet News) - After a meeting with POTUS on Tuesday, senior lawmakers said on condition of anonymity that NATO planes could begin bombing Serb targets by Wednesday. British Defense Secretary George Robertson also said the airstrikes could come today. Yugoslav forces scattered to hide from NATO planes after diplomatic efforts to end the crisis in Kosovo failed and Western leaders ordered airstrikes. 

SERBIA (EmergencyNet News) - Remaining American, German and French diplomats evacuated the Serbian capital of Belgrade early on Wednesday in anticipation of NATO air strikes. State television broadcast instructions from the defense ministry telling people to close up their apartments during air raid alerts and calmly and quietly proceed to bomb shelters, where smoking and alcohol would not be allowed.

UNITED KINGDOM (EmergencyNet News) - Up to four United States B-52 bombers took off Wednesday from a British air base where the giant planes have conducted daily training flights for several weeks. Up to four B-52s took off from the Royal Air Force base at Fairford in Gloucestershire.

From the ERRI Watch Center

WASHINGTON/SERBIA (EmergencyNet News) - As of Wednesday morning, the world was awaiting for a NATO attacks on Yugoslavia that was expected to start with cruise missiles fired from U.S. ships and B-52 bombers. The military action was meant to deal a "swift and severe" blow to Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic's forces and halt their drive against rebels and civilians in the war-ravaged province of Kosovo.

In Brussels on Tuesday, NATO Secretary-General Javier Solana told reporters: "I have just directed SACEUR (Supreme Allied Commander Europe) General Wesley Clark to initiate air operations in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia."

No time was given for an attack but U.S. defense officials said it could be delayed until Wednesday night when overcast late winter skies were forecast to clear over Yugoslavia.

In Belgrade the Yugoslav government declared a "state of immediate threat of war." Prime Minister Momir Bulatovic said in a statement: "The FRY (Federal Republic of Yugoslavia) is exposed to a threat by NATO which contravenes all norms of international law, and is a direct threat of aggression against a sovereign country." U.S. defense officials said that early attacks in any NATO move would concentrate on slamming the Serbs' well-integrated air defense network so that NATO warplanes could roam freely and attack other Serb military targets.

They said attacks would begin with long-range Tomahawk strikes from among six U.S. warships, including two submarines, in the Mediterranean and also from air-launched cruise missiles fired by up to eight B-52 bombers based in Britain. Which have reportedy been in the air for about four hours, at the time this report was being written. That will be followed by sustained bombing raids, including laser-guided bombs from radar-avoiding U.S. F-117A stealth attack jets and dozens of allied jets in a NATO force of nearly 400 planes.

Cruise missiles, guided to targets by satellites from a range of up to 1,000 miles away, avoid putting pilots in the way of powerful Serbian anti-aircraft defenses. They include Soviet-made SA-6, SA-3 and SA-2 anti-aircraft missiles and several thousand anti-aircraft guns. The Pentagon said Serb forces were dispersing some of their mobile surface-to-air missiles in expectation of attack. There are now some 40,000 Serbian troops and 300 to 400 tanks in and around Kosovo.

ERRI senior analyst Clark Staten said, "Although we remain somewhat concerned about the overall U.S. policy in the Balkans, it is also imperative that U.S. troops, once committed, be given the complete and unqualified support of the American people."

Staten added: "More needs to be said about what the end outcome objective of the anticipated bombing campaign is and how it will fit into a larger strategy of ending the carnage in Kosovo for good. While bombing may be helpful in accomplishing one larger objective of causing Milosevic to understand the folly of his actions, it is likely that a ground force similar to that used in Bosnia will eventually be necessary in order to end the massacres there."

ERRI's top analyst also said, "Nor can we recommend a sporadic airwar campaign, with numerous pauses for diplomatic action...we need to hit them deep, wide, and often. This campaign is not against Iraq, and Milsevic is not Hussein...different tactics, than those used in Iraq may be necessary to attain NATO goals in Kosovo."

A British defense expert warned that Allied air strikes against Yugoslavia would not be the "walkover" that military action against Iraq proved last December. Paul Beaver, an expert at defense publishing and information group Jane's Defense, said the Serbian-led Yugoslav armed forces were better equipped than Iraq's had been.

Yugoslavia has a modern air missile defense system which was "a generation more advanced" than anything Saddam's war machine could muster. Beaver said: "The Serbs would be no walkover in the way the Iraqis were. When NATO carried out air strikes against the Bosnian Serbs five years ago three aircraft were shot down. We believe the risk to aircraft involved in this operation would be significantly greater than during the air strikes against Iraq."

Beaver said that NATO does, however, have highly detailed intelligence on Yugoslavia's military facilities. He said: "Intelligence coverage is excellent. Over the last six months there have been a large number of U2 flights, American and British reconnaissance aircraft have been very active, and there is satellite intelligence. They have built up a very, very good target map, far better than the target map of Iraq used by the Allies."

Jane's Defense has identified a number of military sites in Serbia, Montenegro and Kosovo which could be targeted by NATO missiles and bombers. They include the main early warning and coastal missile defense site at Mount Rumija, on Montenegro's Adriatic coast, the main air surveillance and air guidance site at Kopanik, in central south-western Serbia, and the Podgorica air base, near Belgrade. The missile and radar sites in the hills surrounding the Serbian capital could also be targeted.

Jane's also identifies the main Naval base at Tivet, Montenegro, the main tank base at Krusevac, central Serbia, and the air bases at Ladjevci, in central Serbia, Ponikve, in west Serbia, and Slatina, near the Kosovan capital Pristina, as likely targets.

NATO has a force of more than 350 aircraft ready to go into action, including US B-52 bombers armed with cruise missiles. NATO strategy would probably mirror Allied tactics in the attack on Iraq at the end of last year, when the bombardment began with cruise missile attacks on air defense systems. The early strikes were designed to reduce the risk to bomber pilots attacking in later waves. Yugoslav missile systems are based on the Soviet style of integrated air defense which was designed specifically to defend against a NATO attack.

ERRI continues to monitor the situation and will issue **FLASH** reports once the attack begins, as well as another ERRI Special Serbian Crisis Report this evening. (click here to get additional information about recieving these reports as they are issued)

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