ERRI DAILY INTELLIGENCE REPORT-ERRI Risk Assessment Services-Tuesday, July 27, 1999-Vol. 5 - 208-09:330CDT
INDIA/PAKISTAN
DETAILS OF HOW CLOSE ALL-OUT WAR CAME IN KASHMIR
By Steve Macko, ERRI Risk Analyst
The Washington Post said on Monday that as fighting raged between Indian and Pakistani forces two months ago in the disputed province of Kashmir, US spy satellites revealed a new and alarming development hundreds of miles to the south: In the desert state of Rajasthan, elements of the Indian army's main offensive "strike force" were loading tanks, artillery and other heavy equipment onto flatbed rail cars. India, it seemed, was preparing to invade Pakistan.
It was then that POTUS reportedly helped to avert the prospect of a dangerous war by talking with Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, who agreed after hours of tense discussions, to withdraw the forces that had triggered the flare-up in early May.
The full dangerous dimensions of the Indo-Pakistani crisis is just now coming to light. According to senior US administration officials who spoke on condition of anonymity to the Washington Post, the latest conflict over Kashmir came much closer to full-scale war than was publicly acknowledged at the time -- and raised very real fears that one or both countries would resort to the use of nuclear devices each tested last year.
Analysts say the danger is far from over. The two sides continue to trade artillery and machine-gun fire across the Line of Control, which divides the rugged Himalayan province between India and Pakistan. According to the Post, the first reports of renewed fighting along the cease-fire line did not attract much attention in Washington. As EmergencyNet News has said several times, India and Pakistan routinely trade artillery fire with each other in the area.
On 9 May, however, Pakistani-backed infiltrators grabbed the attention of US intelligence analysts when they blew up an Indian ammunition dump near the front-line city of Kargil, destroying 40,000 to 50,000 artillery rounds in a tremendous blast. It soon became clear that up to 700 Pakistani-backed troops -- either Muslim militants, regular army soldiers or some combination of both -- had seized positions on the Indian side of the cease-fire line.
The incursion marked the first time since 1965 that Pakistan had taken and held positions in Indian-controlled Kashmir, and it put the infiltrators in a position to call in artillery strikes on Highway 1A, a major supply route for Indian forces encamped on the desolate Siachen glacier. Even more ominous than the situation in the province, however, was what was happening elsewhere in India and Pakistan. The Indian army was making defensive preparations along India's main border with Pakistan, and armored units intended for offensive use were leaving their garrisons in Rajasthan, in northwest India, and preparing to move.
According to US officials with access to classified intelligence data, Military leaves were canceled nationwide in India. The Indian government said the cancelled leaves were just a precaution. That is not how the Indian moves were interpreted in Washington, however. US officials also noted that a large number of Indian soldiers were being killed in the escalating conflict and Indian newspapers were becoming filled with lurid tales of alleged Pakistani atrocities. India's ruling BJP party, which faces reelection in September, was coming under intense domestic political pressure to adopt a more forceful response.
US intelligence also noted that within a few weeks of the first Indian preparations, Pakistan too began to prepare offensive units. Whether either country would have resorted to nuclear weapons is, of course, pure speculation. US officials refused to say if there was any evidence that either country was preparing to do so. The reader should pull out a map of Pakistan and note that most of Pakistan's major cities are located along its eastern border -- within easy striking distance of any invading Indian forces. US officials told the Washington Post that they could easily envision a scenario under which Pakistani forces, overwhelmed by India's much larger army, could find themselves backed into a corner that could tempt them to play their last and most devastating card -- nuclear weapons.
One US official told the newspaper: "There wasn't any question that this thing could have gone to a high level. That's what scared us."
December 21, 1998--Bin Laden Now Said To Be Building Additional Bases And Command Center (with reference to build-up of Kashmiri militants)
February 12, 1998 --Pakistan: A Country Seeking A Political Identity...
© Copyright, EmergencyNet NEWS Service, 1999. All Rights Reserved. Redistribution without permission is prohibited by law.
The ERRI DAILY INTELLIGENCE REPORT is a subscription publication of the EmergencyNet NEWS Service, which is a part of the Chicago-based Emergency Response and Research Institute. This publication specializes in Security/ Terrorism/Intelligence/Military and National Security issues.
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