Series of Real-time EmergencyNet News Reports Concerning a Military Coup and Governmental Crisis in Pakistan - 12 Oct 99 to 15 Oct 99
From: ERRI DAILY INTELLIGENCE REPORT-ERRI Risk Assessment Services-Friday, October 15, 1999-Vol. 5 - 288
PAKISTAN
Military Consolidates Power
Defying international pressure to restore democratic rule after the military toppled the civilian government, Pakistan's military chief has named himself the country's leader. In the early hours of Friday morning, General Pervez Musharraf declared a state of emergency and assumed the position of the country's chief executive. Within minutes of the announcement in the early hours of Friday, fighter planes were heard flying over Islamabad.
When dawn broke on Friday morning, there was little sign of any extra troop presence and life in the country appeared to be going on as normal. Friday's move ended two days of speculation over the future of the Pakistani government after General Musharraf ousted the civilian administration and Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in a bloodless coup.
In his official announcement, General Musharraf said the National Assembly and all the provincial assemblies have been suspended, and the provincial governments and governors have been dismissed. The constitution has been suspended and the Supreme Court has been banned from challenging the authority of General Musharraf.
The Provisional Constitution Order No.1 also makes it clear that President Rafiq Tarar is now subordinate to the general. The president is required to act on, and in accordance with, the advice of the chief executive. Analysts say that although the official announcement does not say it in so many words, for practical purposes this marks the declaration of martial law in Pakistan.
Some observers say it appears likely that Friday's decision was not the preferred option of General Musharraf. It appears it was impossible for General Musharraf to come up with an alternative formula. It seems the general feared that without imposing martial law he could have been accused of behaving illegally by over-throwing the democratic government of Sharif.
Pakistan's military leaders said on Thursday that they had staged the coup in order to prevent an attempt to assassinate General Musharraf. A military spokesman said the alleged conspiracy became apparent while the general was returning to Pakistan from a visit to Sri Lanka and as Sharif was trying to dismiss him.
The plot allegedly involved blocking the runway at Karachi airport and destroying the general's aircraft -- a Pakistan International Airlines flight carrying more than 238 passengers, which was rapidly running out of fuel. The military became aware of what was happening and army units rushed to the airport to clear the runway so that the general's plane could land.
From: ERRI DAILY INTELLIGENCE REPORT-ERRI Risk Assessment Services-Thursday, October 14, 1999-Vol. 5 - 287
PAKISTAN
Current Pakistani SitRep
The Pakistani army has sealed the country's parliament building and evacuated all staff a day before the lower house was due to meet. No explanation was given for the move. The move comes as General Pervez Musharraf and senior army commanders continue to weigh their options following Tuesday's coup. One option reportedly being discussed in Islamabad is the removal of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif by his party members and the election of a new leader in his place. But the army is not sure if this move has the backing of enough ruling party members.
Since martial law has not yet been declared, parliament continues to function and General Musharraf does not have legal cover for his military takeover. On Wednesday, General Musharraf sought the support of Pakistani President Rafiq Tarar for the establishment of a caretaker administration. But without an official statement, it is being presumed in Islamabad that there was no real breakthough.
The whereabouts of Nawaz Sharif are now said to be uncertain. It was being reported that Sharif had been "shifted to an unknown destination" after he was placed in what was described as protective custody on Tuesday.
The streets of Pakistan remained peaceful on Thursday. Airports that were closed on Tuesday have also been reopened.
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WASHINGTON: Officials said that Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif was the intended but unnamed target of recent warnings by the United States about constitutionally questionable moves in the South Asian country. Sharif had been cracking down on demonstrators and the media, so senior U.S. officials issued pointed and thinly veiled warnings that he should not overstep constitutional lines. While the U.S. also was signaling the military to stay in line, a look back on U.S. strategy toward Pakistan now that Army chief General Pervaiz Musharraf has ousted Sharif in a coup suggests the U.S. inadvertently may have contributed to the prime minister's downfall.
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14 Oct 99 - From http://www.emergency.com/ennday.htm
PUNJAB PROVINCE:
According to the BBC, Pakistan's coup may have spread to the internet, where hackers have reportedly taken over one of the official websites. The site, which is the official webpage of the provincial Punjab Government, now displays a message commending the Pakistan army for their success in overthrowing the Nawaz Sharif government, the BBC says. In what may not be coincidence, Punjab is Mr. Sharif's home state. The "Islamic group of Hackers (Al-Sooraj wing)" is claiming credit for the defacement of the government site.
From: ERRI DAILY INTELLIGENCE REPORT-ERRI Risk Assessment Services-Wednesday, October 13, 1999-Vol. 5 - 286
PAKISTAN
Pakistan Reported Calm A Day After Military Coup
The nation of Pakistan appeared calm on Wednesday as its people awaited the next move by military chief
General Pervez Musharraf following Tuesday's bloodless military coup. Schools and offices were reported open and there was no obvious heavy army presence on the streets of Pakistan's main cities. General Musharraf said the military seized power to stabilize the country, but a big question mark remains over what will happen next in the troubled country.
Political analysts say that General Musharraf could opt for elections or a civilian caretaker government. Alternatively he might decide that he wants to rule Pakistan himself and impose martial law.
The European Union has condemned the coup and urged an immediate return to civilian rule. The governments of the United States and India have expressed concern at the developments in Pakistan, and the Indian army has been placed on high alert. The British Commonwealth warned that it may suspend Pakistan if it does not restore democracy very speedily. The governor of Pakistan's central bank has announced a bank holiday on Wednesday, apparently to stop a massive outflow of foreign exchange from the country.
Analysts have been trying to piece together the events that led up to Tuesday's coup. Actually, all the warning signs for some kind of possible overthrow where there. The United States even warned that such a thing may occur three weeks ago.
During the recent conflict with India over Kashmir, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif said anything India throws at Pakistan "we'll throw back at them."
Within days, however, he had made a dramatic U-turn -- Pakistani-backed forces were pulled out of Kargil. Many Pakistanis saw it as a public loss of face against their old enemy India. More importantly, it was viewed by some as a humiliation to those at the top of Pakistan's army. It is not clear that the climbdown, under pressure from Washington, precipitated the present crisis.
Sharif's government has faced accusations of corruption recently. But it is known that tensions between the democratic government and the military have been high ever since the withdrawal.
Defense analyst Shireen Mazari says the pull-out left a simmering resentment in the military. Mazari said: "A lot of people in the military are unhappy about the fact that after many years, in fact for the first time probably, we had the Indians where we wanted them militarily in Kargil -- that they were not in a position to open an all-out front. And I am sure there is a feeling in the military that had there been proper input into this decision, then maybe the decision to go to Washington might not have happened. Because from what I can gather, the military was quite confident that it could hold out against the Indians."
Pakistan's history has been peppered with military coups, making relations between the government and military tense.
The leader of the military coup in Pakistan is a former army commando known as a moderate on domestic affairs and a hawk when it comes to Pakistan's volatile relations with neighboring India. A decorated soldier, Musharraf wore commando fatigues instead of his military dress uniform on national television early Wednesday morning when he announced Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's overthrow.
Musharraf, who joined the military in 1964, twice served in Pakistan's Special Services Group or commando unit. He faced off against Indian soldiers as a commando stationed on the disputed border that divides Kashmir between Pakistan and its rival India.
According to most Western analysts, Musharraf orchestrated the occupation this summer of Indian territory in Kashmir by Islamic militants. The resulting fighting led to fears of an all-out war between the world's newest nuclear powers.
Musharraf received a medal of distinction for his service during Pakistan's 1965 war against India, which was waged for 17 days over Kashmir -- the flashpoint of two of the three wars fought between the neighbors. At home Musharraf is seen as moderate, who has supported economic reforms. He criticized Sharif for driving the country toward economic ruin. Musharraf has maintained his distance from the country's right-wing Islamic groups, with the exception of encouraging their battle against Indian troops in Kashmir. A former instructor at Pakistan's top military schools, Musharraf has been described by fellow soldiers as a "professional soldier."
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India Concerned While Pakistan General Musharraf Addresses the Nation
By Jeremy Zakis, ERRI Analyst
The Coup in Pakistan on Tuesday has sent shock waves through neighbouring India as the country braces for the possibility of having a hardline government as a neighbour. Indian National Security Adviser Dr Brajesh Mishra said, "We are deeply concerned over developments in Pakistan and are closely monitoring the situation." "We are certainly not looking forward to a hardline army dictatorship in Islamabad," another senior Indian official commented.
The final break between the army and the civilian political leadership was the result of a face-off between India and Pakistan on the Kargil issue.
With a hardline army now sworn into the government, its association with religious right-wing political groups is seen as a potential disaster for South Asia and a serious risk to nuclear security. "There is no political leadership to rein in a general capable of pressing the nuclear trigger," an Indian news service warned.
Indian armed forces remain on full alert ready for an increase of cross-border terrorism from both sides. But the coup didn't come as a major surprise to India, which has been monitoring the situation in Pakistan. For months the Indian Vajpayee government has been privately expressing its concerns about such a coup, amongst senior members.
Meanwhile, leader of the coup, General Musharraf appeared on Pakistan television at 0245 PST (2145 GMT) to deliver a short address about the events. Musharraf blamed the state of economic collapse on the self-serving policies of the former civilian government and justified his actions as a remedy to the fast declining situation.
He said that efforts made by him to peacefully counsel the government were to no avail and he accused the ousted president Mr. Nawaz Sharif of trying to politicize the army, de-stable it and create dissension with its ranks. He also insinuated that Sharif of tried to kill him by not allowing his plane to land in Pakistan when it was short of fuel.
As yet Musharraf has made no policy statement, citing that he wishes bring the current situation under control first. He then delivered this stern warning to the world: "Let no outside forces think that they can take advantage of the prevailing situation."
Text Of Musharraf Speech To The Nation (English)
The following is the complete transcript of the short address to the nation in English by the Chairman Joint Chief's of Staff Committee and Chief of the Army Staff, General Pervez Musharraf that started at 2145 GMT:
"My dear countrymen, Assalam Alaikum You are all aware of the kind of turmoil and uncertainty that our country has gone through in recent times. Not only have all the institutions been played around with, and systematically destroyed, the economy too is in a state of collapse. We are also aware of the self-serving policies being followed, which have rocked the very foundation of the Federation of Pakistan.
The armed forces have been facing incessant public calmer, to remedy the fast declining situation from all sides of the political divide. These concerns were always conveyed to the Prime Minister in all sincerity, keeping the interest of the country foremost. It is apparent that they were never taken in the correct spirit. My singular concern has been the well being of our country alone. This has been the sole reason that the army willingly offered its services for nation building tasks, the results of which have already been judged by you.
All my efforts and counsel to the government it seems were to no avail. Instead they now turned their attention on the army itself. Despite all my advice they tried to interfere with the armed forces, the last remaining viable institution in which all of you take so much pride and look up to, at all times, for the stability, unity and integrity of our beloved country. Our concerns again were conveyed in no uncertain terms but the government of Mr. Nawaz Sharif chose to ignore all these and tried to politicize the army, de-stabilize it and tried to create dissension within its ranks.
I was in Sri Lanka on an official visit. On my way back the PIA commercial flight was not allowed to land at Karachi but was ordered to be diverted to anywhere outside Pakistan, despite acute shortage of fuel, imperiling the life of all passengers. Thanks be to Allah, this evil design was thwarted through speedy army action.
My dear countrymen having briefly explained the background, I wish to inform you that the armed forces have moved in as a last resort, to prevent any further de-stabilization. I have done so with all sincerity, loyalty and selfless devotion to the country with the armed forces firmly behind me. I do not wish to make a lengthy policy statement at this moment. I shall however, do that very soon. For the moment I only wish to assure you that the situation in the country is perfectly calm, stable and under control. Let no outside forces think that they can take advantage of the prevailing situation.
Dear brothers and sisters, your armed forces have never and shall never let you down, INSHALLAH. We shall preserve the integrity and sovereignty of our country to the last drop of our blood. I request you all, to remain calm and support your armed forces in the re-establishment of order to pave the way for a prosperous future for Pakistan. May Allah guide us on the path of truth and honor.
Allah Hafiz. -- Pakistan, Paindabad."
SPECIAL REPORT
EmergencyNet NEWS Service
Tuesday, October 12, 1999
1545 EDT
MILITARY TAKES CONTROL IN PAKISTAN
From the ERRI Watch Center
The Pakistani military on Tuesday announced the dismissal of the civilian government after seizing control of key installations across the country. Government soldiers surrounded the residence of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, closed down the country's main airports and took over state radio and television. The action followed Sharif's firing of Pakistan's army chief, General Pervez Musharraf, who is expected to address the nation shortly.
Reports from Pakistan say that army troops have disarmed the police guard outside Sharif's residence and the premier is believed to be inside the house. neighboring rival India has expressed concern over the developments in Pakistan, and the Indian army has reportedly been placed on high alert.
The army takeover began only minutes after General Musharraf was dismissed from his post by Sharif. The general was on a visit to Sri Lanka when he was removed from office and was later reported to be at Karachi airport holding talks with senior military officers. Sharif had appointed the head of Pakistan's intelligence service, General Ziauddin, in his place.
Pakistani state television went off air after soldiers were seen climbing over the gates of the building and took control.
International observers say that there is considerable confusion about who is behind the military action. ERRI senior analyst Clark Staten's first comment was, "It looks like a coup." Staten continued, "This latest military action is a most troubling development in an already deeply troubled region...I am very concerned about the overall security situation there in the near term and the possibility of renewed hostilities with India." "There are also direct implications involving Afghanistan, militant groups, and Osama bin Laden that may all come into play now," Staten added.
Another analyst said: "It seems the army is not accepting this sacking and they may now be determined to take over ... which part of the army we don't know. The electorate support the democratic government in Pakistan and opposition parties have stated that they would not back a military takeover."
Former Pakistan Prime Minister, Benazir Bhutto, said that the army's action was probably a result of Sharif's politicization of the military. She said some military officers loyal to Sharif might offer pockets of resistance around the country.
No reason had been given for the decision to replace General Musharraf. Earlier this month, the government said that the general had been confirmed as both the head of the army and chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff until 2001. There has been tensions between the government and General Musharraf ever since Sharif ordered the withdrawal of Pakistani-backed forces from the Indian side of the Line of Control in Kashmir in July.
Sharif appointed General Musharaf last year when the former army chief, General Jehangir Karamat, stepped down after making remarks that were regarded as critical of Sharif.
The firing of Musharaf, came after several months of rumors of a possible military coup. Although Pakistan was founded as a democracy after the partition of the Indian sub-continent, the army has remained one of the country's most powerful institutions. Successive governments have made sure that the military was consulted before they took key decisions, especially when those decisions related to the Kashmir conflict. The British Foreign Office has already warned its nationals trapped in Pakistan by an army coup to keep a low profile. The same advice would most certainly apply to Americans in the country.
British officials have warned those planning to travel to Pakistan to postpone their trips until more information becomes available. British nationals already there have been told that they should stay indoors and listen to the news. Pakistan's main airports are closed and a curfew is in place.
Emergencynet News is closely monitoring the fluid situation in Pakistan and will issue updates as they are warranted...
07/27/99-09:30CDT-Details Of How Close All-Out War Came In Kashmir
December 21, 1998--Bin Laden Now Said To Be Building Additional Bases And Command Center (with reference to build-up of Kashmiri militants)
February 12, 1998 --Pakistan: A Country Seeking A Political Identity...
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The ERRI DAILY INTELLIGENCE REPORT is a subscription publication of the EmergencyNet NEWS Service, which is a part of the Chicago-based Emergency Response and Research Institute. This publication specializes in Security/Terrorism/Intelligence/Military and other National Security issues.
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