LEAD FOCUS

By Steve Macko, ERRI Risk Analyst

UNITED KINGDOM/EGYPT (EmergencyNet News) - This past weekend there was a report of interest in the Al-Quds Al-'Arabi newspaper that warned of plans for a fundamentalist Muslim attack against United States and Persian Gulf interests. ERRI analysts have several questions regarding the source and veracity of the report but thought that it was worth mentioning for a few reasons.

The main reason is because terrorist threats made by fundamentialist groups that unfortunately turned out to be true in the past have been reported in Al-Quds Al-'Arabi and in Al-Hayat. So even though we cannot verify how good the source of the information is -- we feel that it cannot just be discounted out of hand.

The second reason is, if one has been following the militant Islamic groups since the beginning of hostilities in Kosovo and Serbia, one will have seen that these groups have been extremely quiet for the past month. ERRI has been reporting on this aspect for the past few weeks. Some counterterrorism experts may be more optimistic about this lack of militant activity, but others find it worrying. The "calm before the storm," if you will.

According to the Al-Quds report that appeared on Saturday, Fundamentalist Islamic leaders in London on Friday warned of a possible attack on US and Gulf interests on the eve of the military sentences in Egypt against elements belonging to a fundamentalist group in the case of the "returnees from Albania."

As was reported by the EmergencyNet News Service on Monday, an Egyptian military court sentenced to death nine of 107 defendants in the biggest trial of Moslem militants since those which followed the 1981 assassination of President Anwar Sadat.

The case was named "the returnees from Albania," in view of the fact that the Egyptian authorities received several of the defendants in this case from the Albanian authorities. They included Muhammad Ibrahim al-Najjar, Shawqi Salamah, Muhammad Hasan Muhammad, and Ahmad Isma'il 'Uthman. Saudi Arabia also handed the defendant Sa'id Sayyhid Salamah, while the United Arab Emirates handed the defendant Muhammad Sa'id al-'Ishri.Azerbayzhan handed two other defendants; namely, Ahmad Salam Maburk and 'Isam Hafiz Mabruk.

In a statement to the Islamic Observation Center, which he runs in London, Yasir al-Sirri, a defendant in the same case, has affirmed that it was U.S. intelligence that apprehended the detainees in Albania and Baku, the capital of Azerbaizhan, and handed them over to the Egyptian authorities.

A key source close to the "Islamic Jama'ah" said that most of the nine men who received the death sentence, belong to "Jihad" group. The source added that the Jama'ah is known not to conduct frequent terrorist operations, but prefer bigger operations, even if they are fewer in number. The source cited as an example the bombing of the Egyptian Embassy in Pakistan and the U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania.

Replying to a question, the source declined to reveal the nature of the possible attack. He noted, however, that "the states, which handed over the defendants, will assume a major part of the responsibility for their execution." It is understood that Ayman al-Zawahiri, leader of "Jihad" group, a buddy of Usama bin Laden, has the responsibility for preparing for such armed attacks.

ERRI counterterrorist analysts note that the day before the bombings of the U.S. embassies in East Africa, Zawahiri issued a statement that said a "message" would be sent to the United States very soon and it was hoped that the message would be received loud and clear.

Now, there was another report that came out on Monday, this one in the Al-Hayat newspaper, that along with the above report, raises the level of concern amongst some analysts. According to Al-Hayat, the Egyptian militant group Islamic Jihad has chemical and biological weapons and it intends to use them against U.S. and Israeli targets. The source of the information was said to be one of the jailed leaders who was convicted in Egypt. The weapons themselves are reported to have come from former Soviet Union countries.

Ahmed Salama Mabruk, who is the head of Jihad's military operations, told Al-Hayat that the Jihad had drawn up a "plan for carrying out 100 attacks against U.S. and Israeli targets and public figures in different parts of the world."

Mabruk on Sunday was sentenced to hard labor for life by Egyptian authorities. He said the plan was on a computer disk confiscated from him during his arrest by the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) in Azerbaijan. The disk was later reportedly handed over to the Egyptian authorities.

Mabruk said he assumed that, upon learning of his arrest, master terrorist Usama bin Laden and al-Zawahri would have changed the dates and locations for the attacks outlined in the plan.

Some analysts may say that Mabruk is just venting his anger for being caught and convicted. The threat may be nothing more than just bluster. But it most certainly cannot just be disregarded. The counterterrorism analysts at ERRI, who watch these events very closely, can only advise awareness and preparedness. Later in today's daily report, readers will take note of security preparations for the upcoming 50th anniversary celebration of NATO in Washington.

© EmergencyNet News Service, 1999. All rights reserved. Redistribution without permission of EmergencyNet News is prohibited.

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