Excerpted from: ERRI DAILY INTELLIGENCE REPORT-ERRI Risk Assessment Services-Wednesday, February 10, 1999-Vol. 5 - 041

By Paul Anderson

Washington, DC (Emergencynet News) -- FBI Director Louis Freeh, on Thursday Feb. 4th, warned of something that Emergency Response & Research Institute (ERRI) analysts have been saying for some time. Freeh issued a statement of concern regarding a possible "convergence" of threats coinciding with the so-called "Millennium Bug" or Y2k problem.

In his statement, Freeh mentioned the possibility of violence perpetrated by "right-wing extremists," "religious cults," or "apocalyptic groups." Additionally, it is thought that "traditional terrorists" like Osama Bin Laden or others might chose to take advantage of other possible confusion surrounding events taking place just prior to or shortly after Jan. 1, 2000.

Freeh and others have raised concerns about the possibility of some groups deciding that the year 2000 is the time for a final "apocalyptic struggle" between the forces of good and evil and that this struggle is justification for their acts of violence. Freeh did say, however, that at the present time that the FBI has "little credible intelligence" to directly support these theories.

Clark Staten, ERRI's executive director, says that the current organization of   the terror groups may make the possible perpetrators difficult to detect prior to the event. Staten says that domestic extremists are often organized into very small cells of people engaging in what is often called "leaderless resistance," and that they could strike without making a large "footprint" that could be easily detected prior to the act.

Additionally, Staten said that the recent pattern of international terrorism involves a similar concept, where a terrorist group doesn't exist before the act and doesn't exist after it. They are brought together by a "controlling authority" and function together only during the actual conduct of the act. Staten pointed to the World Trade Center bombing and other bombings in Saudi Arabia, Tanzania and Kenya as examples of this new paradigm in terror operations.

"I'm afraid we will see some terrorist activity around the time of the Millennium, if for no other reason than some (both domestic and international) extremists believe that is a time for maximum uncertainty and potential panic on the part of the public," Staten said. "That is the objective of a number of America's adversaries...to undermine the citizen's confidence in their government and induce as much fear as possible," he continued. "Some militants will view the period of time surrounding the Y2K bug as a 'window of opportunity' for them to achieve maximum effect with their violent acts," Staten added.

"We believe that the end of 1999 and the beginning of the year 2000 will be a very busy time for America's emergency service and military forces, as they deal with both potential infrastructure failures and their consequences...as well as the possibility of events carried out by opportunistic criminal and terrorist groups," Staten continued. "We are urging caution, planning, training, preparedness, and the implementation of the necessary contingency plans as circumstances dictate," the veteran emergency manager added. "The better we are collectively prepared, both psychologically and logistically, the better the outcome will be...the time has come for us to prepare for these possible eventualities," Staten concluded.

(C) Copyright, EmergencyNet NEWS Service, 1999. All Rights Reserved. Further redistribution without permission is prohibited by law.

The ERRI DAILY INTELLIGENCE REPORT is a subscription publication of the EmergencyNet NEWS Service, which is a part of the Chicago-based Emergency Response and Research Institute. This publication specializes in Corporate Security/Terrorism/Intelligence/Military and National Security issues.

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